J. P. Caulkins, G. Feichtinger, G. Tragler, V.M. Veliov:
"Cycles of violence: A dynamic control analysis";
European Journal of Operational Research,
We introduce and analyze a simple model of cycles of violence in which oscillations are generated when surges in lethal
violence shrink the pool of active violent offenders. Models with such endogenously induced variation may help explain
why historically observed trends in violence are generally not well correlated with exogenous forcing functions, such as
changes in the state of the economy. The analysis includes finding the optimal dynamic trajectory of incarceration and
violence prevention interventions. Those trajectories yield some surprising results, including situations in which myopic
decision makers will invest more in prevention than will far-sighted decision makers.
Cost benefit analysis; Cycles of violence; Hopf bifurcation; Optimal control; OR in government
Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank der Technischen Universitšt Wien.