Talks and Poster Presentations (with Proceedings-Entry):
P. Svoboda, M. Bürger, M. Rupp:
"Forecasting of Traffic Load in a Live 3G Packet Switched Core Network";
Talk: 6th Symposium on Communication Systems, Networks and Digital Signal Processing,
- 07-25-2008; in: "6th International Symposium on Communication Systems, Networks and Digital Signal Processing, 2008. CNSDSP 2008.",
In this paper we analyze different methods for long term forecasts of packet switched traffic from live 3G networks. The dataset consists of over 400 values, each representing the peak load for a separate day. Four different methods were applied to forecast the increase in traffic, two simple: linear and exponential regression, and two more sophisticated ARMA and DHR. We will show in which cases the sophisticated models deliver a better performance and discuss the question if the gain is significant to justify the increased complexity. We present numerical results for long, e.g., more than 100 days, and short time,e.g., hourly or daily, fitting for our case study based on real traces from a live network. The paper concludes with a benchmark based on the observed mean absolute error.
UMTS, load, forecast
"Official" electronic version of the publication (accessed through its Digital Object Identifier - DOI)
Electronic version of the publication:
Project Head Markus Rupp:
Created from the Publication Database of the Vienna University of Technology.