P. Hirschler, D. Prosperi:
"Thinking long-term about the post-carbon society";
ISOCARP Paper Platform,
This paper describes the process and results of an interdisciplinary and international project conducted in the spring and summer of 2009 aimed at envisioning the future for cities and regions in a post-petroleum world. The project was carried out by urban planning faculty and students at Florida Atlantic University (Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA) and the Vienna University of Technology. Current topical concerns such as peak oil, climate change, and renewable energy provided the starting points for envisioning the future. Viewed in the longer range, "the Great Change" motivates us to think about how we move from a global culture addicted to cheap, abundant petroleum to more sustainable lifestyles, whether through policy directives or market forces.
The paper is constructed in two parts. The first part provides a brief overview of the models and methodologies of envisioning and scenario construction that are potential useful for planners thinking in the longer view. The second part of the paper presents the results of the joint workshop. Three different assumptions sets were employed: no problem: science and technology are able to develop new energy sources that can and will replace fossil fuels; shortage: energy needs are pushed down through a series of fundamental restructuring; and apocalypse: the search for replacement energy is unsuccessful. Four different sets of "scenarios" constructed around alternative sets of assumptions are then described and illustrated. The scenarios are labelled: The Great Slowdown, Life in Bubbles, Matrix 2080, and Altered Spatial Structures.
post-carbon, scenarios, south florida
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Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank der Technischen Universitšt Wien.