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G. Zauner, N. Popper, F. Breitenecker:
"Evaluation of Different Modeling Techniques for Simulation of Epidemics";
Vortrag: EUROSIM 2010 - 7th Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Prague, Czech Republic; 06.09.2010 - 10.09.2010; in: "Proceedings of the 7th Congress on Modelling and Simulation", M. Snorek, M. Cepek, Z. Buk, J. Drchal (Hrg.); Vol.2 Full Papers (2010), ISBN: 978-80-01-04589-3; S. 791 - 796.

The spread of infectious disease and the induced harm and deaths are of main interest in populations since the existence of modern social structures. For example the Spain flu in the early 20th century or the modern swine flu is influencing the overall world social systems.
To find the best suited strategy against an illness taking into account additional boundaries it is necessary to calculate different scenarios in advance. Thereby assumptions regarding bounded resources of vaccines or money for a strategy as well as epidemiological key parameters have to be taken into account. In mathematical theory the ordinary differential equations of Kermack and McKandrick in 1927 describing the spread of disease are one key step in simulation of the behavior of an epidemic. The so called SIR (Suspected - Infected - Recovered) model. Nevertheless these equations are not the only way of modeling complex disease behavior. In this work the main solution strategies used in modern pharmacoeconomic output research are discussed. These strategies are Markovian models, ODE models and agent based modeling techniques. The three strategies are explained briefly and in the second task the differences and benefits as well as problems of each method are figured out. In the outlook a concept for feedback in modeling and more general in problem solving in pharmacoeconomic decision making regarding infectious diseases is presented.

modeling techniques, epidemics, evaluation of strategies