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C. Urach, F. Miksch, G. Zauner, N. Popper, F. Breitenecker:
"Representation of Competetive Serotypes in Dynamic Models";
Vortrag: EUROSIM 2010 - 7th Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Prague, Czech Republic; 06.09.2010 - 10.09.2010; in: "Proceedings of the 7th Congress on Modelling and Simulation", M. Snorek, Z. Buk, M. Cepek, J. Drchal (Hrg.); Vol.2 Full Papers (2010), ISBN: 978-80-01-04589-3; S. 939 - 944.

Health economic questions demand accurate models for the spread of diseases. There already exist various approaches. Health economists mostly use Markovian models which are not suitable when analyzing dynamic effects like herd-immunity or serotype shifting. Wanting to understand these effects dynamic models like differential equations or agent-based models have to be used. Correctly modeling the transmittance of pathogens automatically considers herd-immunity. Serotype shifting on the other hand is a far more complex effect. Usually a disease is not caused by a certain bacteria where accination prevents from getting infected with it. A more realistic view considers many different serotypes which all interact with each other. Vaccination only prevents from carrying certain serotypes but does not immunize against all of them. Wanting to establish a model representing different serotypes and especially simulating occurring serotype shifting, we show several ways how to extend an ordinary differential equation model. First we analyze the trivial case where they are not interacting with each other. Afterwards we run a scenario where people can carry strains of both serotype groups and then the most sophisticated way where serotypes affect each other in non-trivial ways. Most of the time it is unknown how serotypes interact with each other therefore data of studies and expertise must be used to identify the model parameters. Model structure has to be chosen problem-dependent therefore there is not one correct method.

Epidemiology, Serotype shifting, Vaccination, Health technology assessment