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H. Strulik, K. Prettner, A. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz:
"The past and future of knowledge-based growth";
Journal of Economic Growth, 18 (2013), 4; 411 - 437.

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates
R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and
schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity
growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent
emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that
the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns
negative during economic development. This "population-productivity reversal" explains
why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population
growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce,
the medium-run prospects for future economic growth-when fertility is going to be
below replacement level in virtually all developed countries-are better than suggested by
conventional R&D-based growth theories.

R&D · Productivity · Fertility · Human capital · Demographic transition

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9