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F. Wirl, S. Caban:
"A Rationalization of Ups And Downs of Oil Prices by Sluggish Demand, Uncertainty, And Nonconcavity";
Natural Resource Modeling, 26 (2013), 4.

Motivated by the recent switching between "low" oil prices and "high" oil prices, this paper provides an economic explanation for oil price volatility. Given the characteristics of the oil market-sluggish, concave, and uncertain demand, as well as noncompetitive players-the corresponding profit maximizing strategy is to switch between a low price and a high price depending on whether the current demand is below or above a certain threshold. This provides an economic rationalization of oil price volatility (including the low prices) as alternative, or at least as complement, to the typically offered political explanations.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12025