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F. Tahmasebi, A. Mahdavi:
"Occupancy modelling in the context of building systems control";
Talk: Advanced Building Skins - Conference Proceedings of the 9th ENERGY FORUM, Bressanone, Italy; 2014-10-28 - 2014-10-29; in: "Advanced Building Skins - Conference Proceedings of the 9th ENERGY FORUM", EF ECONOMIC FORUM (ed.); Verlag mit wissenschaftlichem Lektorat, (2014), ISBN: 978-3-98120537-4; 849 - 857.

Building performance is influenced by occupants´ presence and actions. Knowledge of occupants´ future
presence and behaviour in buildings is of central importance to the implementation efforts concerning
predictive building systems control strategies. Specifically, prediction of occupants´ presence in office
buildings represents a necessary condition for predicting their interactions with building systems. In the
present contribution, we focus on evaluation of probabilistic occupancy models to explore the potential
of using past monitored data in predicting future presence of occupants. Toward this end, we selected
a university campus office area, which is equipped with a monitoring infrastructure and includes a
number of open and closed offices. For the purpose of this study, we use monitored occupancy data and
a previously developed stochastic occupancy model to predict the occupancy profiles on a daily basis.
The predictions are then evaluated via comparison with monitored daily occupancy profiles. To conduct
the model evaluation in a rigorous manner, a number of specific evaluation statistics were deployed. The
results facilitate a discussion of the potential and limitations of occupants´ presence models intended for
incorporation in the predictive control of existing buildings.

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stochastic occupancy models, predictive building systems control, evaluation statistics