[Zurück]

B. Glock, P. Einzinger, F. Breitenecker:
"A System Dynamics Model for the Prevalence of Obesity in Austria";
Poster: 15th Biennial European Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Antwerpen, Belgien; 08.06.2014 - 10.06.2014; in: "15th Biennial European Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making: ESMDM Meeting Abstracts", Medical Decision Making, 34 (2014), ISSN: 0272-989x; S. E42 - E43.

Purpose: For obesity, especially that being developed by more energy intake than expenditure, it is assumed that the intake and expenditure of children are dependent on those of their parents. This dependency together with a reduction of the energy balance are tested.
Methods: A system dynamics model was implemented for the Austrian population, including demographic changes. The population was divided into stocks by sex, age classes, and severity degrees of obesity. The changes of energy balances were then mapped on changes of the rates between the severity degrees in accordance to a 2006 paper by Homer et al. Furthermore, a possible dependency of caloric intake and expenditure from parents to children was implemented and tested. The simulation runs from 1999 to 2050. Unfortunately, not all data were available; therefore, some had to be estimated based on data of other countries. Another set of parameters was automatically and manually calibrated by comparing the simulated prevalence to historical data from 2006. Also, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the most uncertain parameters was conducted.
Results: Next to the base run, 2 interventions for decreasing energy intake and 1 for decreasing energy intake together with increasing energy expenditure were tested. For all 3 interventions, a decrease within the prevalence of obese and overweight persons compared to the base run could be achieved. For example, a constant reduction of energy intake for 80 Kcal a day decreases the prevalence of obese men for 10.28% and that of women for 9.65% in 2050.
Conclusions: Although these results show a decrease in the prevalence of obesity, it has to be considered that some data were estimated by data of other countries that were available but that may reflect different eating or dieting habits than the Austrian population. The sensitivity analysis shows that in some cases of the interventions, the prevalence doesn´t decrease compared to the base run. If reliable data would be available, this model builds the basis for further analyzing the dependency of energy intake or expenditure of children on their parents. Also, other effects on energy balance itself, like environment or social status, could be tested.

Obesity, System Dynamics, Prevalence, Energy Balance

http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989X14547195