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B. Glock, P. Einzinger, F. Breitenecker:
"Modelling Obesity in Austria with System Dynamics";
Vortrag: ASIM 2014, 22.Symposium Simulationstechnik, Berlin; 03.09.2014 - 05.09.2014; in: "Beiträge zur ASIM 2014 - 22.Symposium Simulationstechnik", J. Wittmann, C. Deatcu (Hrg.); ARGESIM Verlag, Wien (2014), ISBN: 978-3-901608-44-5; 7 S.

More than one third of the Austrian population is obese or overweight. Not only the adult population suffers from this chronic disease, but also children. Therefore a modular system dynamics model is built that simulates the Austrian population and the development of the prevalence of obesity over time from 1999 until 2050. Furthermore, three interventions are tested: 1.) a reduction of caloric intake of 80 kilocalories per day, 2.) a reduction of caloric intake of 160 kilocalories per day and 3.) a reduction of caloric intake of 80 kilocalories per day together with an increase of physical activity that is equivalent to an expenditure of 80 kilocalories per day. All interventions show a decrease of the prevalence of obesity. Additionally intervention 1 and 2 are compared, showing that a reduction of the doubled amount of caloric intake (intervention 2) results in a reduction of the prevalence of obesity that is less than twice as much as that in intervention 1. Intervention 2 and 3 are compared, showing that an increase in physical activity increases the prevalence of obesity more than a decrease of caloric intake of the same caloric value. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis for validation is done as well.

Obesity, System Dynamics, Modelling, Simulation, Top-Down