K. Prettner, T. Trimborn:
"Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth";
In the second half of the 20th century, most industrialized countries experienced declining fertility, rising life expectancy and a slowdown of population growth. Standard models of R&D-based growth predict that a decline in population growth reduces economic growth. We argue that this implication hinges on the assumption of infinitely lived individuals. The semi-endogenous growth model with overlapping generations that we propose implies a negative relationship between population growth and economic growth during a substantial part of the transitional dynamics if the decline in population growth is accompanied by an increase in life expectancy as observed in industrialized countries.
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