[Zurück]

A. Novak, G. Feichtinger, G. Leitmann:
"On the Optimal Trade-Off Between Fire Power and Intelligence in a Lanchester Model";
in: "Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making - Essays in Honor of Richard Hartl", Springer International Publishing Switzerland, 2016, ISBN: 978-3-319-39118-2, S. 217 - 231.

Combat between governmental forces and insurgents is modelled in
an asymmetric Lanchester-type setting. Since the authorities often have little and unreliable information about the insurgents, `shots in the dark´ have undesirable side-effects, and the governmental forces have to identify the location and the strength of the insurgents. In a simplified version in which the effort to gather
intelligence is the only control variable and its interaction with the insurgents based on information is modelled in a non-linear way, it can be shown that persistent oscillations (stable limit cycles) may be an optimal solution.We also present a more generalmodel in which, additionally, the recruitment of governmental troops as well
as the attrition rate of the insurgents caused by the regime´s forces, i.e. the `fist´, are considered as control variables.

terrorism, intelligence, limit cycles