[Zurück]

G. Tragler, J. P. Caulkins:
"Dynamic Drug Policy: Optimally Varying the Mix of Treatment, Price-Raising Enforcement, and Primary Prevention Over Time";
Vortrag: 28th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO 2016), Poznan (eingeladen); 03.07.2016 - 06.07.2016.

A central question in drug policy is how control e orts should be divided
among enforcement, treatment, and prevention. Of particular
interest is how the mix should vary dynamically over the course of an
epidemic. Recent work considered how various pairs of these interventions
interact. This paper considers all three simultaneously in a
dynamic optimal control framework, yielding some surprising results.
Depending on epidemic parameters, one of three situations pertains.
It may be optimal to eradicate the epidemic, to "accommodate" it by
letting it grow, or to eradicate if control begins before drug use passes
a DNSS threshold but accommodate if control begins later. Relatively
modest changes in parameters such as the perceived social cost per unit
of drug use can push the model from one regime to another, perhaps
explaining why opinions concerning proper policy diverge so sharply.
If eradication is pursued, then treatment and enforcement should be
funded very aggressively to reduce use as quickly as possible. If accomodation
is pursued then spending on all three controls should increase
roughly linearly but less than proportionally with the size of the
epidemic. With the current parameterization, op- timal spending on
prevention varies the least among the three types of control interventions.