J. P. Caulkins, D. Grass, G. Feichtinger, R.F. Hartl, P.M. Kort, A. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A. Seidl, S. Wrzaczek:
"How Long Should the COVID-19 Lockdown Continue?";
Research Reports (Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Operations Research and Control Systems), 2020-10 (2020), 10; 17 S.

Kurzfassung englisch:
Nations are struggling to decide when to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with sharply divergentviews between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and those arguing for continuing thelockdown. We examine this choice within a simple optimal dynamic control model that encompassesboth health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care exceedshospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and evenboth be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because of the presence of a so-calledSkiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying to essentially eradicatethe virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals arealready filled to capacity.

COVID-19, Lockdown, Skiba threshold, SIR model

Elektronische Version der Publikation:

Erstellt aus der Publikationsdatenbank der Technischen Universitšt Wien.