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M. Di Serio, M. Fragetta, E. Gasteiger:
"The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States";
Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, 82 (2020), 6; 1262 - 1294.

We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We
use a factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us
to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to
address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast
series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification,
we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at
the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several
robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and
that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent
with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/obes.12382