Publications in Scientific Journals:
J. P. Caulkins, D. Grass, G. Feichtinger, R. Hartl, P.M. Kort, A. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, A. Seidl, S. Wrzaczek:
"How long should the COVID-19 lockdown continue?";
PLoS ONE,
15
(2020),
12;
1
- 19.
English abstract:
Nations struggled to decide when and how to end COVID-19 inspired lockdowns, with
sharply divergent views between those arguing for a resumption of economic activity and
those arguing for continuing the lockdown in some form. We examine the choice between
continuing or ending a full lockdown within a simple optimal control model that encompasses
both health and economic outcomes, and pays particular attention to when need for care
exceeds hospital capacity. The model shows that very different strategies can perform similarly well and even both be optimal for the same relative valuation on work and life because
of the presence of a so-called Skiba threshold. Qualitatively the alternate strategies correspond to trying essentially to eradicate the virus or merely to flatten the curve so fewer people urgently need healthcare when hospitals are already filled to capacity
"Official" electronic version of the publication (accessed through its Digital Object Identifier - DOI)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/0243413
Electronic version of the publication:
https://publik.tuwien.ac.at/files/publik_300062.pdf
Created from the Publication Database of the Vienna University of Technology.